The Energy Race That Could Redefine Global Power—and how North America Might Have Already Lost
Jan 5, 2025
Is it the continent's capital abundance that leads to high worker productivity? Or is everything cheaper, thanks to the continent's vast scale? This assumption about prosperity may change soon. This is because of the almost total rejection of green energy—one of North America's biggest upcoming policy failures. The rejection of green energy means that North American manufacturing industries might never recover. Quality of life could decrease, and economic leverage might decline even further. One of the most interesting facts about the growth of the North American economy is that it is not capital or a huge domestic market that has made the region prosperous. Instead, it was because North America became one of the most efficient energy users in the world. From the 1900s to 1970s, 13% of productivity was driven by capital investment, while 87% was driven by the increasingly efficient use of exergy—the energy used in helpful work¹. What might happen if North America uses energy that isolates it from the international community? Ensuring a transition to green energy is vital for the future of Canada and the United States.
Domestic Policy is the Problem
Due to the rise of populist leaders in North America, there has been a rejection of green energy, which could condemn the region to obsolescence in less than a few decades. Pierre Poilievre, for instance, does not want to incentivize green energy with his policies against the carbon tax. Donald Trump pulled out of the Paris Climate Accords, rejected Obama’s Clean Power Plan, and turned down other incentives for further climate reconciliation². He has also criticized other countries, such as the U.K., for adopting Net-Zero targets³. These actions, while aimed at protecting jobs, could seriously hurt North American economies in the long run.
Green energy is poised to become the most critical resource in the world because it will likely define the future of manufacturing nations. Apart from regions like Florida facing many climate-related issues, other unforeseen consequences could emerge. The argument for adopting green energy is not purely environmental but also vital for North American foreign and trade policy. Without green energy, three bloc-collapsing issues could arise: dwindling international trade, possible international tariffs, and an influx of climate refugees. Rejection of green energy could pose one of the biggest threats to North American interests in the future, potentially leading to a significant decline.
The Demand of Global South & Gen-Z Consumers
Assuming that every adult is a consumer, today, there are around 4.36 billion consumers aged 20 to 60. However, in the future, that figure is projected to increase to 5.18 billion. Around 2.67 billion consumers are expected to enter the market, mainly in the Global South, while 1.84 billion will exit, primarily from the Global North⁴. Climate change, driven by fossil fuels, disproportionately affects those in the Global South. From their perspective, why would purchasing goods made in non-climate-friendly factories ever be advantageous, especially when their countries bear the externalities? The Global South faces heightened risks from climate change, with record heatwaves worldwide⁵. Economic growth in these regions might increasingly depend on trade with nations adopting sustainable practices, potentially excluding North America.
Domestically, surveys indicate that 62% of Gen-Z shoppers prefer to buy from sustainable brands, and 73% are willing to pay more for environmentally friendly products⁶. Ethical considerations regarding sustainable environmental treatment could become even more critical in the future. If North America fails to adopt green energy policies, domestic consumers might also favour imports from green energy factories, impacting manufacturing jobs. This dual pressure—from foreign and domestic consumers—could substantially harm North American industries.
Tariffs & Exclusion
Countries following Net-Zero carbon emission policies might impose tariffs on North America. Green growth remains expensive in the short term, and the Global South could perceive North America as a climate free-rider, reigniting anti-colonial sentiments. The region will resent wealthier nations profiting while offloading climate-related externalities onto poorer ones.
Countries in the Global South might view the U.S. as responsible for many climate-related challenges. Trade blocs might purposefully exclude or limit American influence. North America's failure to meet its environmental responsibilities could also erode its moral leadership. As China and the European Union take proactive steps to combat climate change, Canada and the U.S. risk being perceived as global net negatives.
Climate Refugees
Even if North America maintains trade dominance, a new kind of refugee crisis could arise: climate refugees. An estimated 1.2 billion people are at risk from climate change⁷. North America's fertile, livable land could become desirable to those leaving countries ravaged by climate change. A new era of climate migration might emerge, with communities competing for habitable land. Current small population bursts under leaders like Trudeau and Biden have already contributed to the rise of right-wing populism. Larger population transfers could exacerbate social tensions and lead to significant chaos.
The Rise of the Energy Empire: China
While North America struggles to adapt to the green energy revolution, China has emerged as the world leader in green energy manufacturing. As part of its national strategy, China has committed to having 50% of its electricity-generating infrastructure come from green energy projects⁸. By 2022, renewable energy capacity in China will surpass coal-fired power installations, signalling its transition toward a sustainable future.
This progress has implications for North America. Even if attempts are made to catch up, China’s advancements are staggering. From January to May 2023, China exported nearly 98 GW of solar panels⁹, reaching a cumulative 223 GW by the end of the year¹⁰. In comparison, the U.S. increased its solar panel manufacturing capacity by only 11 GW during the same period¹¹, while China added 45.7 GW in just the first quarter of 2024¹².
This dominance extends beyond solar panels. Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) like BYD's Seagull cost under $10,000, making them globally competitive¹⁴. In contrast, the cheapest American EV starts at $37,190¹⁵. This disparity reflects higher efficiency in Chinese production. Furthermore, the collapse of American green auto manufacturers like Fisker suggests limited potential for the U.S. to compete in this sector.
The implications of this disparity are profound. China’s control over renewable energy manufacturing mirrors historical U.S. dominance over global oil markets. Energy resources have historically been a critical factor in international conflicts, from Germany and France’s disputes over the Rhineland to Japan’s expansion in the Pacific. If the U.S. fails to adapt, it risks losing industrial competitiveness, trade leverage, and global influence to China, potentially ending the era of American dominance.
We Need Green Energy
If North America wants to survive the next century, a rapid green energy transformation must occur. It is vital for keeping productivity high in North America and future-proofing our exports. Through green energy, North America can remain a moral leader in the world and protect its borders by allowing climate-insecure countries the opportunity to thrive. We need to act as soon as possible to catch up to China. The answer is clear: North America needs bold investments in green energy.
Works Cited
Ayres, R. U., & Warr, B. (2009). Accounting for Growth: The Role of Physical Work. Edward Elgar Publishing.
The Guardian. (2017). Trump withdraws from Paris climate accords. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com
The Sun. (2024). Donald Trump criticizes UK’s Net-Zero plans. Retrieved from https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/32591232/donald-trump-says-uk-is-making-a-big-mistake/
United Nations. (2023). Population data 2023. Retrieved from https://www.un.org
The Guardian. (2024). Record heatwaves worldwide. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/14/unprecedented-number-of-heat-records-broken-around-world-this-year
First Insight. (2023). Gen-Z shoppers demand sustainability. Retrieved from https://www.firstinsight.com/white-papers-posts/gen-z-shoppers-demand-sustainability
World Bank. (2024). 1.2 billion people at risk from climate change. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2024/10/31/1-2-billion-people-at-high-risk-from-climate-change-worldwide
Sandpiper Communications. (2023). China’s race to renewable energy leadership. Retrieved from https://sandpipercomms.com/government-and-public-affairs/chinas-race-to-renewable-energy-leadership/
SolarBe Global. (2023). China’s solar panel exports reach 98 GW from January to May 2023. Retrieved from https://www.solarbeglobal.com/chinas-solar-panel-exports-reach-98-gw-from-jan-to-may/
Wood Mackenzie. (2023). China’s solar and storage exports achieve record growth. Retrieved from https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/chinas-solar--storage-exports-achieve-record-growth-with-more-than-40-surge/
PV Tech. (2024). China’s installed solar capacity reaches 660 GW. Retrieved from https://www.pv-tech.org/chinas-installed-solar-capacity-660gw/
Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). (2024). American solar panel manufacturing capacity increases 71% in Q1 2024. Retrieved from https://seia.org/news/american-solar-panel-manufacturing-capacity-increases-71-q1-2024-industry-reaches-200-gigawatt/
Environmental Energy Leader. (2024). Chinese firms to control nearly half of US domestic solar panel production by next year. Retrieved from https://www.environmentenergyleader.com/stories/chinese-firms-set-to-control-nearly-half-of-us-domestic-solar-panel-production-by-next-year
Electrek. (2024). BYD’s $10,000 Seagull EV worrying rivals. Retrieved from https://electrek.co/2024/05/22/byds-10000-seagull-ev-worrying-rivals-hits-new-markets/
InsideEVs. (2024). Cheapest American EV prices start at $37,190. Retrieved from https://insideevs.com/news/565883/electric-car-prices-us/
Adam Channa
The Energy Race That Could Redefine Global Power—and how North America Might Have Already Lost
Jan 5, 2025
Adam Channa
Is it the continent's capital abundance that leads to high worker productivity? Or is everything cheaper, thanks to the continent's vast scale? This assumption about prosperity may change soon. This is because of the almost total rejection of green energy—one of North America's biggest upcoming policy failures. The rejection of green energy means that North American manufacturing industries might never recover. Quality of life could decrease, and economic leverage might decline even further. One of the most interesting facts about the growth of the North American economy is that it is not capital or a huge domestic market that has made the region prosperous. Instead, it was because North America became one of the most efficient energy users in the world. From the 1900s to 1970s, 13% of productivity was driven by capital investment, while 87% was driven by the increasingly efficient use of exergy—the energy used in helpful work¹. What might happen if North America uses energy that isolates it from the international community? Ensuring a transition to green energy is vital for the future of Canada and the United States.
Domestic Policy is the Problem
Due to the rise of populist leaders in North America, there has been a rejection of green energy, which could condemn the region to obsolescence in less than a few decades. Pierre Poilievre, for instance, does not want to incentivize green energy with his policies against the carbon tax. Donald Trump pulled out of the Paris Climate Accords, rejected Obama’s Clean Power Plan, and turned down other incentives for further climate reconciliation². He has also criticized other countries, such as the U.K., for adopting Net-Zero targets³. These actions, while aimed at protecting jobs, could seriously hurt North American economies in the long run.
Green energy is poised to become the most critical resource in the world because it will likely define the future of manufacturing nations. Apart from regions like Florida facing many climate-related issues, other unforeseen consequences could emerge. The argument for adopting green energy is not purely environmental but also vital for North American foreign and trade policy. Without green energy, three bloc-collapsing issues could arise: dwindling international trade, possible international tariffs, and an influx of climate refugees. Rejection of green energy could pose one of the biggest threats to North American interests in the future, potentially leading to a significant decline.
The Demand of Global South & Gen-Z Consumers
Assuming that every adult is a consumer, today, there are around 4.36 billion consumers aged 20 to 60. However, in the future, that figure is projected to increase to 5.18 billion. Around 2.67 billion consumers are expected to enter the market, mainly in the Global South, while 1.84 billion will exit, primarily from the Global North⁴. Climate change, driven by fossil fuels, disproportionately affects those in the Global South. From their perspective, why would purchasing goods made in non-climate-friendly factories ever be advantageous, especially when their countries bear the externalities? The Global South faces heightened risks from climate change, with record heatwaves worldwide⁵. Economic growth in these regions might increasingly depend on trade with nations adopting sustainable practices, potentially excluding North America.
Domestically, surveys indicate that 62% of Gen-Z shoppers prefer to buy from sustainable brands, and 73% are willing to pay more for environmentally friendly products⁶. Ethical considerations regarding sustainable environmental treatment could become even more critical in the future. If North America fails to adopt green energy policies, domestic consumers might also favour imports from green energy factories, impacting manufacturing jobs. This dual pressure—from foreign and domestic consumers—could substantially harm North American industries.
Tariffs & Exclusion
Countries following Net-Zero carbon emission policies might impose tariffs on North America. Green growth remains expensive in the short term, and the Global South could perceive North America as a climate free-rider, reigniting anti-colonial sentiments. The region will resent wealthier nations profiting while offloading climate-related externalities onto poorer ones.
Countries in the Global South might view the U.S. as responsible for many climate-related challenges. Trade blocs might purposefully exclude or limit American influence. North America's failure to meet its environmental responsibilities could also erode its moral leadership. As China and the European Union take proactive steps to combat climate change, Canada and the U.S. risk being perceived as global net negatives.
Climate Refugees
Even if North America maintains trade dominance, a new kind of refugee crisis could arise: climate refugees. An estimated 1.2 billion people are at risk from climate change⁷. North America's fertile, livable land could become desirable to those leaving countries ravaged by climate change. A new era of climate migration might emerge, with communities competing for habitable land. Current small population bursts under leaders like Trudeau and Biden have already contributed to the rise of right-wing populism. Larger population transfers could exacerbate social tensions and lead to significant chaos.
The Rise of the Energy Empire: China
While North America struggles to adapt to the green energy revolution, China has emerged as the world leader in green energy manufacturing. As part of its national strategy, China has committed to having 50% of its electricity-generating infrastructure come from green energy projects⁸. By 2022, renewable energy capacity in China will surpass coal-fired power installations, signalling its transition toward a sustainable future.
This progress has implications for North America. Even if attempts are made to catch up, China’s advancements are staggering. From January to May 2023, China exported nearly 98 GW of solar panels⁹, reaching a cumulative 223 GW by the end of the year¹⁰. In comparison, the U.S. increased its solar panel manufacturing capacity by only 11 GW during the same period¹¹, while China added 45.7 GW in just the first quarter of 2024¹².
This dominance extends beyond solar panels. Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) like BYD's Seagull cost under $10,000, making them globally competitive¹⁴. In contrast, the cheapest American EV starts at $37,190¹⁵. This disparity reflects higher efficiency in Chinese production. Furthermore, the collapse of American green auto manufacturers like Fisker suggests limited potential for the U.S. to compete in this sector.
The implications of this disparity are profound. China’s control over renewable energy manufacturing mirrors historical U.S. dominance over global oil markets. Energy resources have historically been a critical factor in international conflicts, from Germany and France’s disputes over the Rhineland to Japan’s expansion in the Pacific. If the U.S. fails to adapt, it risks losing industrial competitiveness, trade leverage, and global influence to China, potentially ending the era of American dominance.
We Need Green Energy
If North America wants to survive the next century, a rapid green energy transformation must occur. It is vital for keeping productivity high in North America and future-proofing our exports. Through green energy, North America can remain a moral leader in the world and protect its borders by allowing climate-insecure countries the opportunity to thrive. We need to act as soon as possible to catch up to China. The answer is clear: North America needs bold investments in green energy.
Works Cited
Ayres, R. U., & Warr, B. (2009). Accounting for Growth: The Role of Physical Work. Edward Elgar Publishing.
The Guardian. (2017). Trump withdraws from Paris climate accords. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com
The Sun. (2024). Donald Trump criticizes UK’s Net-Zero plans. Retrieved from https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/32591232/donald-trump-says-uk-is-making-a-big-mistake/
United Nations. (2023). Population data 2023. Retrieved from https://www.un.org
The Guardian. (2024). Record heatwaves worldwide. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/14/unprecedented-number-of-heat-records-broken-around-world-this-year
First Insight. (2023). Gen-Z shoppers demand sustainability. Retrieved from https://www.firstinsight.com/white-papers-posts/gen-z-shoppers-demand-sustainability
World Bank. (2024). 1.2 billion people at risk from climate change. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2024/10/31/1-2-billion-people-at-high-risk-from-climate-change-worldwide
Sandpiper Communications. (2023). China’s race to renewable energy leadership. Retrieved from https://sandpipercomms.com/government-and-public-affairs/chinas-race-to-renewable-energy-leadership/
SolarBe Global. (2023). China’s solar panel exports reach 98 GW from January to May 2023. Retrieved from https://www.solarbeglobal.com/chinas-solar-panel-exports-reach-98-gw-from-jan-to-may/
Wood Mackenzie. (2023). China’s solar and storage exports achieve record growth. Retrieved from https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/chinas-solar--storage-exports-achieve-record-growth-with-more-than-40-surge/
PV Tech. (2024). China’s installed solar capacity reaches 660 GW. Retrieved from https://www.pv-tech.org/chinas-installed-solar-capacity-660gw/
Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). (2024). American solar panel manufacturing capacity increases 71% in Q1 2024. Retrieved from https://seia.org/news/american-solar-panel-manufacturing-capacity-increases-71-q1-2024-industry-reaches-200-gigawatt/
Environmental Energy Leader. (2024). Chinese firms to control nearly half of US domestic solar panel production by next year. Retrieved from https://www.environmentenergyleader.com/stories/chinese-firms-set-to-control-nearly-half-of-us-domestic-solar-panel-production-by-next-year
Electrek. (2024). BYD’s $10,000 Seagull EV worrying rivals. Retrieved from https://electrek.co/2024/05/22/byds-10000-seagull-ev-worrying-rivals-hits-new-markets/
InsideEVs. (2024). Cheapest American EV prices start at $37,190. Retrieved from https://insideevs.com/news/565883/electric-car-prices-us/